Seattle – Portland fastest rising home prices nationwide

sold - sale pending signsAccording to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller home price index, Seattle and Portland are leading the country with the fastest rising home prices in the twenty major metropolitan areas they follow. Seattle has had year over year price increases of 11% annually through September 2016, while Portland follows right on Seattle’s heels at 10.9%. Remember, these are average prices and some neighborhoods within these metro areas have seen prices rise much more dramatically year over year. 

According to Professor Gerard Mildner at Portland State University’s Center for Real Estate, the issue is that developers are just not building enough housing to meet the demand. He added that here in the Portland metro area, “We’re building about 20 percent fewer housing units in the last three years as compared to the years between 1990 to 2007.” At the same time, our rate of growth as been explosive with as many as 150 new residents moving into Portland every single day! That number varies from report to report, but numbers I’ve seen range from as low as 112 daily to as high as 165 people migrating into Portland daily. 

Housing inventory has sat at or below 2 months (the time it would take to sell all listed homes based on current demand if there were no new listings) for the last few years, and demand is on the rise with recent rate increases. 

How much has demand risen?

Lockbox activity 12-4-2016

Just to give you some perspective on demand, check out the chart issued by RMLS that shows the amazing increase in number of home viewings the week ending December 4, 2016!

Since the election, rates have been rising at the fastest pace we’ve seen in years, so buyers are jumping off the fence and getting to work finding that new house. On average rates are up at least 1/2% in the couple weeks! 

 

 

 

Is Portland experiencing a housing bubble?

The general consensus is NO. 

First of all, the population and business influx that we are seeing in this decade did not exist prior to the housing collapse on 2007-2008. Sure we saw people moving to Portland from all over the country, but the jobs increases due to the movement of big industry creating satellite offices here is a relatively new phenomenon. 

We have not seen the wage increases that would support price increases continuing at the rate we’ve seen over the last 3-5 years (up 32.5% in the last 5 years), but the lending guidelines (assuming that they are not over-turned with the new administration) are so much more stringent that current home owners and buyers are not nearly as likely to default as they were during the recession. High risk banking and lending practices and loan products have all but disappeared. 

Home ownership remains an American dream

Most  people interviewed want to be home owners. There is stability in knowing what your housing payment will be from year to year (versus rapidly rising rents); and where else can you see as great a return on your investment as current home owners are seeing?

As mentioned above, until supply catches up to demand, housing prices in Portland will continue to rise. At least that is the forecast until at least 2020. To be sure, the rate of inflation in housing values will slow as supply catches up to demand. There could even be a 10% price reduction in the next 10 years, but if your home value has increased by 30% and more, that’s not devastating, especially if you know your housing payment will not increase. 

Please read more in the article published by Ettro Capital in November 2016.

 

 

 

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